Thursday, August 30, 2012

2012 SEC Season Preview


The blog is back just in time for the start of the football season! Check out the team-by-team preview below. Teams are listed in predicted order of finish per division. After this week, I will have a game-by-game preview leading up to the weekend, but for Week 1 I will just go with some picks:

Vandy over South Carolina tonight in the huge upset
NC State over Tennessee
Michigan State over Boise State
Auburn over Clemson
Alabama over Michigan (but closer than people think)
Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech

SEC WEST


LSU
Les Miles and the Tigers come off of a disappointing National Championship game perhaps as an even better team. Georgia transfer Zach Mettenberger is a far more skilled passer and overall quarterback than Jordan Jefferson or Jarrett Lee and he will be surrounded by a pretty good group of receivers despite the loss of Reuben Randle. The LSU backfield will again likely be without a star but should have no shortage of depth and fresh legs to wear down opposing defenses. Four starters return on the offensive line to go along with former starter Josh Dworaczyk who missed last season with an injury. Look for the offense to be greatly improved and help take some of the pressure off a defense that lost several stars. In the secondary, gone are star corners Tyrann Mathieu (kicked off) and Morris Claiborne (draft) along with safety Branden Taylor. Eric Reid returns at free safety, but LSU will need guys to step up to replace the talent and playmaking abilities that are now gone. Barkevious Mingo and Sam Montgomery anchor what has the potential to be the league’s best defensive line, which should help cover mistakes in the secondary. Expect LSU to again compete for an SEC West title and be a serious contender to return to the national championship game.

Alabama
LSU’s main competitor in the SEC West will be the team they lost to in the BCS National Championship. Alabama faces serious losses on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, but looks relatively well positioned to replace talent with talent. Lack of experience will be the biggest challenge for the Tide. Mark Barron, DeQuan Menzie, Dre Kirkpatick, Don’t’a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw, and Josh Chapman all moved on, taking with them massive amounts of talent and experience. Nick Saban’s phenomenal recruiting will be tested this year as the Bama looks for playmakers. Defensive linemen Damion Square and Jesse Williams will anchor a pretty good defensive line, and middle linebacker Nico Johnson will command the field. Like LSU, losses in the secondary may be the biggest challenge defensively for Alabama, where Robert Lester is the only returning starter. Dee Millner must step up for the Tide to continue their defensive dominance. On the offensive side of the ball, Alabama returns AJ McCarron at quarterback and one of the nation’s best offensive lines. McCarron will have to find new weapons, however, as Trent Richardson and receivers Marquis Maze and Darius Hanks are no longer around. Eddie Lacy and TJ Yeldon have enormous potential at running back, so if Kenny Bell or one of several young receivers can step up to make plays, the offense should maintain last year’s stats. I’m not as high on Alabama as most- the defensive losses scare me- but the potential is definitely there to defend their title.

Arkansas
An offense of turmoil in Fayetteville has given way to a season of hope. Quarterback Tyler Wilson, the SEC’s best, returns as does star running back Knile Davis. Three of the Hogs top 4 receivers are gone, however, which will make Wilson’s job much more difficult. Cobi Hamilton will lead an otherwise inexperienced group who will surely see lots of targets in Paul Patrino’s pass-happy offense. The defense returns 6 full-time starters and several experienced backups. A deep defensive line will carry the unit, which should be improved thanks to improved depth and experience. The losses at receiver will certainly be a setback, but Wilson is talented enough to make the Razorbacks a top 15 team, though I think Auburn and Mississippi State have a chance to unseat them for 3rd place in the West.

Auburn
Gene Chizik’s Tigers return 18 starters, which should give you a pretty good idea about the youth on last year’s squad. Despite the number of returners, this is still a relatively young team, which will be led by a young quarterback. Kiehl Frazier won the starting job essentially by default, with Clint Moseley struggling through a shoulder injury all summer and fall. Auburn needs Frazier to be league average if they hope to improve on last year’s season. Top playmakers Onterio McCalebb, Philip Lutzenkirchen, and Emory Blake return, but Auburn will be without top rusher Michael Dyer. Tre Mason and Florida transfer Mike Blakely should help to ease that loss. Along the offensive line, Auburn will be very young, but much improved from a talent standpoint. Tackles Greg Robinson and Avery Young and center Tunde Fariyike will start their first collegiate games against Clemson on Saturday. If and when center Reese Dismukes returns from suspension, he should help anchor the young line. New offensive coordinator Scot Loeffler will replace Gus Malzahn’s spread(ish) offense with a more pro-style attack, which will lead to more consistency, but probably fewer big plays. The defensive side of the ball will show the greatest improvement on The Plains, as former Falcons DC Brian VanGorder brings an attacking style to what had become a largely vanilla defense under Ted Roof. An increase in talent and experience at almost every position should make this the SEC’s most improved unit. Auburn is probably a year away from competing for an SEC championship, but won’t be an easy task for anyone this season. Auburn fill find out a lot about where they stand after the opener against Clemson and a Week 2 game in Starkville.

Mississippi State
The boys from Starkville have improved greatly since Dan Mullen took over, but have struggled to take the next step into SEC contention. Consistency at quarterback has been an issue, but junior Tyler Russell looks poised to take charge of the position and give the Dogs some stability. He returns a veteran receiving corps, which should help, but tailback Vic Ballard will be a big loss. LaDariaus Perkins showed potential last year and will need to realize it in order for MSU to be competitive on offense. The defense returns 7 starters including stud corner Jonathan Banks. A playmaker or three will need to emerge to help replace DT Fletcher Cox and safety Charles Mitchell. Mississippi State will be improved across the board and should move fully into SEC relevance as Mullen continues to bring in a higher level of talent and coach them up.

Texas A&M
Before Thursday’s game with Louisiana Tech was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac, many pundits were calling for an upset. This tells about all that we need to know about confidence in the Aggies during their first year in the Southeastern Conference. Texas A&M has a new coaching staff, returns only 10 starters, and will be starting a freshman quarterback all while adjusting to a new conference. Sure, Kevin Sumlin and company will probably win a couple SEC games, but if they finish ahead of anyone other than Ole Miss in the West then Sumlin deserves to be the runner-up for SEC Coach of the Year (behind James Franklin; read on).

Ole Miss
Gone is Houston Nutt, in is the goofy looking guy from Blind Side (not quite as goofy in real life). Outside of that, not much has changed. The quarterback battle dragged through all of fall camp, inspiring little confidence in either Bo Wallace or Barry Brunetti. The receiving corps is improving and Jeff Scott returns in the backfield, but the talent level is not there yet to even compete with SEC defenses. Though lacking in experience, the Rebel defense offers solid potential. Hugh Freeze will have Ole Miss moving in the right direction, and the offense will be faster paced and more entertaining, but the Rebs will struggle to win an SEC game.


SEC East


Georgia
This is the year for UGA. The schedule is great, Aaron Murray returns as one of the SEC’s top quarterbacks, and the defense should be stifling. Consistency and fulfilling potential have been great struggles during the last several years of Mark Richt’s tenure in Athens. The other theme has been off the field trouble, and this year was no different. Top running back Isaiah Crowell is no longer with the team, and the Dogs will be without several members of the linebacking crew and secondary for various lengths of time due to suspension. Despite all these things, anything less than an SEC title game appearance would be a disappointment. When not suspended, 10 starters will be back on the defense including star linebacker Jarvis Jones. If Georgia can weather the suspensions through the Missouri game, that unit should be fine and all eyes will turn to the offensive line. Aaron Murray, a stable of young runners, and an experienced wide receiver corps give Georgia solid skill players, but the trench battle will be essential. If the unit can live up to fall reports, Georgia should challenge for an SEC and possibly a national title. Beware, however, of the inconsistencies.

South Carolina
Stephen Garcia is gone and South Carolina fans couldn’t be any happier. Opposing fans, however, will yearn for his return all season. Connor Shaw takes over full time at quarterback and Marcus Lattimore returns from injury to carry the rock. The Gamecocks will desperately need an outside weapon to step up and replace Alshon Jeffery and make plays when defenses inevitably stack the box against Lattimore. Ace Sanders has the potential to be that guy. On the defensive side of the ball, Jadeveon Clowney will be the SEC’s most dominant defensive end, but Melvin Ingram won’t be around to draw the attention away. South Carolina will need safety/linebacker DeVonte Holloman and defensive end Devin Taylor to fill the playmaking void and keep pressure off an inexperienced secondary that will be without corner Steph Gilmore for the first game in three years. Steve Spurrier’s squad has SEC championship aspirations, but the road is much tougher than Georgia’s. Watch out for tonight’s game in Nashville.

Vanderbilt
Here come the Commodores! James Franklin is doing amazing things with the perennial SEC bottom feeder. Recruiting has improved and talent along with it, and the Dores have what it takes to finish in the top 4 in the west and win 8 games. It starts tonight with a big opener with South Carolina. Vanderbilt’s schedule is tough to start but finishes relatively easily. Zach Stacy, Warren Norman, and Brian Kimbrow give Vandy a formidable three-headed monster at running back, and quarterback Jordan Rodgers stabilized the position after taking over the position full time during the middle of last season. The defensive line should be a strength for James Franklin both in talent and depth. At linebacker, the starters are solid enough, but depth is a concern. Two veteran starters departed from the secondary, and replacing Casey Heyward and Shaun Richardson will be one of the biggest obstacles to Cinderallahood for Vanderbilt. Everyone who plays James Franklin’s squad this season should be on upset watch.

Florida
Different year, same story for Will Muschamp’s starting quarterback- there isn’t one. Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brisett will rotate during game one, showing that neither has made enough of a move to really take control. Running back is another concern for the Gators, who lack experience and high-end talent. The defense is loaded with playmakers, but the same just cannot be said for the O. Jon Bostic, Jelani Jenkins, Matt Elam, and Shariff Floyd can be stars and will have to carry the team if Florida hopes to be serious contenders. Matchups with top defenses LSU, Florida State, Georgia, and South Carolina will prove difficult challenges the offense challenged Gators, and road games at A&M and Vanderbilt could also be stumbling blocks.

Missouri
The SEC’s newest Tigers return only 10 starters from last year’s team, but that number does include junior QB James Franklin who threw for over 2,800 yards last season. Senior Kendial Lawrence will join him in the backfield after being injured most of last season. Missouri returns several experienced receivers and will add 5 star freshman Dorial Green-Beckham to give Franklin lots of options in the spread offense. Depth on the offensive line could be an issue, but the starting five should be solid. The same can be said for the linebacking corps. Overall, the defense is average at best and may be easily worn down by the physicality of SEC play. The Tigers schedule looks difficult, with Alabama in from the West and non-cupcake out of conference games against Arizona State, UCF, and Syracuse. They should win all three, but amidst an SEC schedule, that doesn’t leave much time for recovery.

Tennessee
Vols coach Derek Dooley has been on the hot seat since his arrival in Knoxville and the pressure to win will really be on this season. Tennessee returns its best offensive line of Dooley’s tenure and junior QB Tyler Bray  should be one of the league’s most prolific passers if he can stay away from any further off-field trouble. Star receiver Da’Rick Rogers was unable to do so and as a result will now be playing his football at Tennessee Tech. Justin Hunter and JUCO transfer Cordarrelle Patterson are left to pick up the slack and really should have no trouble doing so. Last year UT had the worst rushing game in the league last season and that may not change. The Volunteers will go with a running back committee, largely due to a lack of a standout option. If Tennessee hopes to win more than 2 SEC games, a viable rusher will need to emerge. Defense should be improved in Knoxville, though unspectacular. A.J. Johnson is a star in the making and 8 other starters return. Off the field issues have kept the Tennessee from developing a constant stream of talent, which will be all too evident this fall.

Kentucky
Joker Phillips returns only 8 starters from a team that finished 8th or worse in all relevant SEC categories last season. Heck, it might be a good thing. Quarterback Max Smith infused some life into the offense at the end of the year, but he will be behind an almost brand new offensive line and lined up next to a stable of very average running backs. La’Rod King is the Wildcats’ one formidable receiver, but he won’t be able to save this offense from being unproductive. The defense will be led by a strong defensive line but the linebackers talented but young and inexperienced. Bud Dupree and Avery Williamson are names to watch for as the year progresses. The secondary will be led by safety Martavius Neloms, but will break in two new corners and is lacking in true playmakers. Top to bottom, Kentucky simply is not in a position to be competitive with most of the league. 

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Bowls

Ok, I am several blogs behind. Sorry, this isn't my real job. I'll get caught up with all the action this week, but here are my on the record picks for today's bowl games. They snuck up on me with the weekends falling when they do.

Temple over Wyoming
Utah St over Ohio
San Diego St over Louisiana-Lafayette

Check back this week for a full bowl rundown, Auburn coordinator talk, BCS Championship blabber and more.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Week 12: Occupy the BCS

Get yo'self some Turkey Day football update!

Today the blog will be in a slightly different format. We will begin by recapping the madness that was last week's epic collapse of top teams, and finish with an Auburn recap and Iron Bowl preview. Enjoy. Happy Thanksgiving to all. I hope this entertains you while millions are being bored by the parade.

Nation

  • So you remember last week when I said that the schedule was boring and that you should do something else? Well, I seem to have forgotten that outside of the SEC, elite teams really aren't elite and sometimes lose to Iowa State. Or Baylor. Or USC. Anyway, Alabama fans had their greatest hopes realized, while the BCS may have had their worst. 
  • Oklahoma State choked massively. I honestly can't fathom how a team with this much offensive talent and skill fell to Paul Rhoads's squad. I suppose 5 turnovers and 87 penalty yards will do that to you. What a huge letdown for the Big 12ish, who saw their National Championship hopes crash with the Cowboys and....
  • The Sooners flop to Baylor. Robert Griffin III played like a Heisman candidate, and Landry Jones didn't. If Griffin doesn't get an invite to the Heisman ceremony in New York, then the ceremony should be ashamed. With the parody that exists this season, he may get left out, but it would be a travesty. When Oklahoma lost to Texas Tech several weeks ago, I predicted that it wouldn't be their only loss. I also predicted early that Baylor would upset someone big. I wouldn't have predicted this to be the week, however. Next week's Oklahoma-Ok State game lost a lot of its luster with these two losses.
  • A week after knocking off #4 Stanford, Oregon flopped against USC, ending their chances at a rematch with LSU in the BCS Championship game. Matt Barkley looked like a Heisman candidate. LaMichael James did not. Kenjon Barner was the top back for the Ducks, but it wasn't enough, Alejandro Maldonado's kick at the end missed, and the Ducks missed their chance.
  • Clemson absolutely flopped. The Tigers turned the ball over four times and lost to a pretty terrible NC State team. I don't think they would have jumped high enough even if they hadn't lost, but this only furthers the mantra that Clemson always chokes. Fortunately for Dabo Swinney, this is a relatively young team, especially on offense, so the Tigers will be back next season.
  • Which brings us to the SEC. LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas are the top 3 in the current BCS.  LSU and Arkansas play tomorrow and the Iron Bowl is Saturday. If LSU wins, they will face Georgia in the SEC Championship. Many of the BCS experts believe that they could lose to Georgia and still make the championship. I am skeptical. If Arkansas knocks off LSU, madness will ensue. That will create a 3-way tie for the SEC lead. What happens here is that the BCS rankings determine which team goes to Atlanta. Unless of course the top 2 teams aren't separated by more than 5 spots (which they won't be). In that case, the head-to-head will determine who gets to face Georgia. To me, that seems to give Bama the edge should LSU fall. 
  • Disappointing loss for Vanderbilt in overtime against Tennessee. The Dores still have a chance to get bowl eligible with a victory at Wake on Saturday, as can the Vols against Kentucky. 
Iron Bowl
  • Auburn and Bama bowl struggled mightily with FCS teams in the first half last week, only to pull away in the second half. It seems to reason that both were probably looking ahead and probably spent the week game planning for one another, rather than for their opponents.
  • Auburn will have to play by far its best game of the season and Bama its worst if Auburn is going to come away with the victory. 
  • The Tigers have done decently with straight ahead running teams in the last couple years (Alabama, South Carolina), at least as compared with the overall lackluster defense. The Tigers will sell out to shutdown Trent Richardson, and make AJ McCarron beat them. Will that be enough? Probably not, but it's worth a shot.
  • Both Gene Chizik and Gus Malzahn insisted that they won't change anything and won't resort to trick plays. I'm not buying that. Auburn has been planning for this game all year. With the struggles this team has had, I expect them to pull out all the stops in hopes of pulling off an epic upset and saving a bit of the season and getting momentum going into next season. 
  • Brandon Moseley is questionable after leaving last week's game with a knee injury. If I was putting money on it, I'd say he plays. Eric Mack played pretty well at guard in his stead, as Chad Slade shifted to tackle. Slade and Mack will both have to fight to have starting jobs next season, but even if they don't start, they will be very important backups. 
Happy Turkey eating everyone!

Friday, November 18, 2011

Week 11: Better Late Than Never

Sorry for the delay folks. Mono has been trying to keep me down for about three weeks now, so hence the delay. Anyway, let's get on to a review of last week's action.

Auburn

  • Auburn made Saturday's matchup with Georgia uglier than I think anyone ever imagined. Auburn has struggled with the Bulldogs in recent years, but this was worse than anything we've seen during the Chizik era- even this season's LSU game. 
  • Auburn got absolutely manhandled in every single aspect of the game. Auburn couldn't run the ball (and didn't really attempt to), couldn't pass/catch the ball (with the exception of Emory Blake), couldn't defend the pass, and couldn't defend the run. Isaiah Crowell and Carlton Thomas both went over 125 yards on the ground, and Aaron Murray completed 18 passes for 224 yards (an absurd 12.4 yard average) and 4 touchdowns.
  • I'm not going to dwell on the specifics. It was ugly, and I think all Auburn fans would agree that that is sufficient. Let's take a look at what the causes and solutions are.
  • Auburn is getting demolished on the offensive line. I've mentioned before that this is an offensive line that is lacking in both talent and experience. Based on Gene Chizik and AJ Greene's comments this week, they may also be lacking leadership (they're not the only one's). I've mentioned before that this is a ridiculous hodgepodge of guys who really aren't SEC starters. Greene is a converted defensive end, Moseley a converted tight end (both in the last 2 1/2 years), John Sullen is average, Chad Slade might get there, but he's young and not talented enough to make up for his inexperience, and Reese Dismukes is a true freshman. Auburn really needs an infusion of talent on the line in order to turn things around next year. Currently redshirting Christian Westerman and Greg Robinson are extremely talented and will help next year, but incoming recruits will also have to help. Continuity is another big factor, which Auburn may get next year when they put 5 guys out there who they are fully comfortable with and who can grow and gel together. The rest of this year doesn't look so hot.
  • The defensive line is young, and is getting handled by bigger, more physical offensive lines. This shouldn't really surprise us, but for some reason it continue to frustrate us. Auburn starters rotation on the defensive line is made up of exclusively freshmen and sophomores. The talent is there for this crew, but experience and strength are not yet on their side. The future is bright however.
  • Bad news for T'Sharvan Bell, who went down with a knee injury Saturday. He will require surgery and will miss the rest of the season. The good news for Bell- this at least gives him a pass on the criticism I would have put on him this week. Phillip Lolley and the rest of his corners are not so lucky. The corners were absolutely embarrassed by Aaron Murray and his receivers. They were constantly out of position, beat deep, not looking back for the ball, and just downright bad. Lolley and others made excuses this week, but the reality remains- this unit has to get better. Again, this is a young unit (with the exception of Bell) that will get better with time and experience, but for now they just aren't getting the job done. 
  • Eltoro Freeman is playing at an absolutely elite level. The problem is, he is the only player on the defensive side of the ball doing so. Everyone else looks overmatched, undersized, and unprepared. That's what happens when you lose over 30 players from one year to the next, I suppose.
  • We saw on Saturday why Clint Moseley didn't get the starting nod from the beginning. When Moseley threw the pick 6 to Rambo, I mentioned to those I was watching the game with that we would now see  what he was really made of. The knock on Moseley has always been the extremes of his emotions- not being able to bounce back from a bad play. I didn't like what I saw. Moseley looked flustered and hesitant after the interception. He will need to build confidence in himself and in his teammates going forward if he hopes to contend for the starting position when next season rolls around. 
  • Congrats to Steven Clark who was named one of nine semi-finalists for the Ray Guy Award, given each year to the nation's top punter. Clark responded by not allowing Georgia to advance a punt, and averaging 41 yards.
SEC
  • South Carolina knew that it had to keep winning in order to keep its hopes of an SEC Championship berth alive. The Gamecocks did so against a struggling Florida team. Not exactly impressive fashion, but Connor Shaw got it done. Spurrier and company must now hope that Georgia slips up against Kentucky, which seems unlikely.
  • Especially since the Wildcats got absolutely mauled by Vanderbilt. Watch out for the Dores. One more win makes them bowl eligible.
  • And they still have Tennessee to go. The Vols are winless in SEC play after Arkansas became the latest opponent to tear up Derek Dooley's squad. Tough days in Knoxville, and a likely loss to Vandy won't make it any better.
  • AJ McCarron struggled again as Bama picked up an uninspiring bounce-back win over Mississippi State. Alabama may be the 2nd best team in the country, but the offense will have to look much better against Auburn if the Tide hope for voters to give them a rematch in the BCS Championship. I'm sure Auburn's defense will be happy to oblige.
  • Ole Miss lost by 20 to Louisiana Tech. For some reason, Houston Nutt is still at the helm until the end of the year. Not sure why a team playing so poorly would fire the head coach mid-season and keep him around til the end. It only causes more embarrassment. 
Nation
  • Two nice Thursday wins in a row for Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech last week, and then last night over UNC. The Hokies are in position for a pretty nice rematch with Clemson for the ACC Championship.
  • Nebraska gave Penn State its first Big 10 loss in its first post-Paterno game. The Nittany Lions still sit atop the division, on pace for a matchup with Michigan State in the inaugural Big Ten Championship game.
  • West Virginia knocked off Cincinnati, continuing to muddle the forever uninteresting Big East championship race.
  • Oklahoma State looks quite impressive. I would be glad to see that offense matched up with LSU's defense in a National Championship game.
  • Thank you for playing Boise. Hopefully this will finally end all of the nonsense that we see every year about the Broncos deserving a shot at the National Championship. They lose the only challenging game they play every season, so I'm not inclined to ever give them a shot against the nation's elite teams, who play a tough schedule week in and week out.
  • As I predicted on multiple occasions, Stanford fell to Oregon. The Cardinal just never really looked the part of an elite contender to me. Oregon is placing themselves in a position to possibly set up a rematch of their own with LSU should a few things fall their way. 
That's all for this week. This weekend's schedule of games is utterly uninspiring, so find something else fun to do.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Week 10: "The Game of the Century?"

A few initial thoughts before we move to the "Game of the Century"
  • Penn State ought to be absolutely ashamed of itself for the way that it handled the Jerry Sandusky situation. Coverups as they relate to recruiting or college athletes are one thing, but covering up or even not fully exploring an incident of sexual abuse involving a young boy (which has now become 9 young boys) is something totally different and unacceptable. There should be no one safe through this investigation who had knowledge of the accusations and didn't pursue them. 
  • That includes winningest coach of all-time Joe Paterno. A career that probably should have ended a couple years ago in honor and esteem, will now do so shamefully and forever tarnished. This should definitely be JoePa's last season, and Penn State should start afresh from top to bottom next season, ridding itself of any personnel who took part in such a shallow-thinking and heinous coverup.

  • Had I posted the blog Sunday when I initially intended to, I would have looked like a genius for the second time this season, predicting a coaches firing within days of it occurring (hours in the case of Mike Stoops). Unfortunately, it took me until Tuesday to post, and thus Houston Nutt was fired before I was able to post my prediction that it would come after this week's atrocious loss to Kentucky.
  • I was looking over my Auburn position roster (which has seniors in bold), and realized that were it not for the last month of Eltoro Freeman's phenomenal play, and the last 3 years of frustration and jubilation that have been Neiko Thorpe's career, Auburn fans probably won't notice much change at all when next year's team hits the field. Sure, there will be other seniors gone, but with the young depth that Auburn has been putting on the field and developing this season and small number of seniors on this year's team, the transition should be seamless. This assumes that Auburn doesn't attempt to make Kiehl Frazier the starter, and understands that Auburn will still be likely integrating at least 3 new linemen in all likelihood (Christian Westerman, Greg Robinson, and JUCO commit Will Latu). 
  • Missouri is officially a member of the SEC. If that excites any SEC fan outside of maybe Arkansas, I'd love to hear why. Columbia, Missouri isn't exactly a destination roadtrip, and I'm not really sure what Mizzou brings to the SEC, other than 2 big TV markets (Kansas City and St. Louis) and an obnoxious third Tiger.

LSU-Alabama
  • To say that those of us who watched the so called "Game of the Century" were a little let down is probably fair. To say that we should have expected different is probably foolish. What we got was a fantastic defensive battle between two fantastic defensive teams, a game that regulation time couldn't decide, and two very conservative offenses. We got what we expected in the defensive department, and therefore to expect a whole lot out of the offenses would have been silly. What we didn't see, however, was any sort of creativity on offense, any risk taking, or any trick plays whatsoever. Granted, those plays are much more difficult against the top tier defenses that the Tide and Tigers possess, but they are at least worth a shot, particularly when you simply can't get close enough to kick a field goal, no matter how hard you try.
  • By absolutely no means should the Alabama loss be put completely on the shoulders of Cade Foster or Jeremy Shelley. There is no way that he should have been put in the position to constantly be kicking 45-53 yard field goals and been expected to make them. His previous career long? 49 yards. His success when kicking field goals over 50 yards? 0/3. His kick record for this season? 1/3. This is not a man on who's shoulders the "Game of the Century" should have been placed 4 times. That is simply bad coaching. When you have a Heisman frontrunner, you put the ball in his hands and let him win the game. When it comes down to the 30 yard line and your calls are not good enough or gutsy enough to get you into the red zone, or at least into a reasonable field goal distance, that isn't on the kicker. I've seen plenty of terrible comments directed Foster's way, but this should all fall on Nick Saban. By attempting 5 long field goals (1 successful), and deciding to run out the clock at the end of regulation rather than trying to go for the win, Saban played the game as safely and conservatively as it can be played, and this time, it cost the Tide a shot at the National Championship. Don't blame that on the kicker.
  • The Alabama fan's guide to still getting to the National Championship (in increasing order of importance):
    1. Auburn beats Georgia this weekend (- to Boise for UGA losing, + to Bama for Auburn winning; Boise probably wouldn't jump Bama either way, but better safe than sorry)
    2. Oregon beats Stanford this weekend (Bama would still have to beware of Oregon creeping back up; a Stanford victory would definitely have the Cardinal jump the Tide, at least temporarily)
    3. Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State in the final week of the season.
    4. Bama beats Mississippi State, GSU, and Auburn.
SEC
  • Big win for Arkansas over South Carolina. Keep in mind, Arkansas still has LSU in the final week of the season, and this game has been unpredictable in past years. The Razorbacks could really throw a wrench in things across the country by knocking off the Tigers in Baton Rouge. I don't expect it to happen, I'm just stating the facts.
  • I honestly thought before the game started that Vanderbilt might beat Florida. And they did....in the 2nd half. The Dores simply got too late a start, and couldn't pull off the upset in spite of a great comeback. Expect James Franklin's team to continue to improve and to be a force in the East next season (Franklin currently has Vandy with the nation's 24th best recruiting class).
  • Removed post predicting Houston Nutt's firing.
  • Georgia now fully controls its road to Atlanta for the SEC Championship. Auburn will look to take away that control on Saturday, in Athens. 
Around the Nation
  • Iowa beat Michigan. Is that impressive? Not particularly
  • Nebraska didn't wait long before correcting me for every saying anything mildly positive about them. Disregard last week's favorable comments toward the Huskers after this weeks loss to Northwestern.
  • Southern Miss is having quite the nice season. Unfortunately, they don't play Houston, so we may never know if either was really legit. I suppose the bowl games will tell. Hopefully both get matched up with non-Big East BCS conference teams.
  • Big victory for Oklahoma State, at least in terms of confidence (or cockiness). The Cowpokes held off a great effort from Kansas State to slide into the #2 spot vacated by Alabama in the BCS. 
That's all for this week. No matter how much you like this blog, don't make out with it. I have mono.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Week 9- Lutzenkirchen!!!!

Auburn
  • Philip Lutzenkirchen is phenomenal. That's all there is to it. Not only was he an absolute asset in both the run and pass blocking games, but he made perhaps the play of the year with his one-handed catch, transfer, and dive for the pylon. Clint Moseley seems to have a pretty good rapport with Lutz (who had 2 TD's on the day), so I would look for a slight role increase as the Tigers get into Amen Corner. 
  • Clint Moseley's arm strength is a key that the Auburn offense didn't have during the first half of the season. Long passes to Quindarius Carr and Emory Blake showed what had been missing from Gus Malzahn's attack. The long pass opens up the run game, and vice versa, but when the passing threat isn't there, teams can stack the box and make Mike Dyer a non-factor. This is a big step forward for this offense. Great performance for Moseley, albeit against poor competition.
  • Give Ted Roof and company credit for the second half adjustments in the run game. Ole Miss dominated on the ground during the first half, but Auburn made adjustments, put more men in the box and made Randall Mackey throw the ball. The result, Mackey proceeded to overthrow receivers by an average of 10 yards per attempt. Good decision Roof.
  • At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Eltoro Freeman has taken his game to a new level. We all knew that The Bull had this in him, but we hadn't seen it with any consistency during his time on the Plains. This makes 3 weeks in a row where Freeman has played at an elite level and is a big reason why the Auburn defense is so improved. 
  • Neiko Thorpe played one of the worst games I have ever seen from a senior with 4 years of playing experience. Thorpe single-handedly gave up a touchdown by whiffing on tackles on two Brandon Bolden runs, including a 38-yarder and the touchdown run. Thorpe tackled with his head down, not even looking at the ball carrier and payed the price. If he doesn't improve during practice, expect to see more and more Erique Florence as the season goes on. Florence is the future, and already does a lot of things better than Thorpe (like turn and play the ball in the air). 
  • The offensive line looked at least somewhat improved this week. AJ Greene still missed to many assignments, but Auburn honestly doesn't have any other options at tackle other than pulling Greg Robinson's redshirt, which won't happen. Chad Slade looked better, and Brandon Moseley and John Sullen looked solid. Georgia will be a big test in two weeks, but the Tigers have two weeks to continue to gel, so I expect a solid performance.
  • Yesterday was an excellent example of why Jay Wisner is on the field so frequently. While his physical attributes and raw skills are nothing to write home about, Wisner is the Kodi Burns type, doing the dirty work when it comes to blocking for teammates. He laid several big blocks to spring Mike Dyer and a couple receivers. Trooper Taylor has always said that the guys who get on the field are the ones who learn to block. Take note DeAngelo Benton.
  • It was painfully evident how important Emory Blake is to this Auburn offense. After watching a team that couldn't do a thing during the passing game for the last three weeks, Blake came in and immediately made plays. Five catches for 71 yards doesn't really jump out at you, but the element that he brings to the vertical game is irreplaceable.
  • This team is young, but the future is bright. At the end of the season, Auburn's only contributors who will leave due to graduation are Freeman, Brandon Moseley, Greene, Thorpe, and Carr. The entire defensive line and backfield will return, and injured freshmen Kris Frost, Sammie Coates, and Chris Landrum should help bolster a group that has already seen 4 true freshmen start this season. If currently redshirting Greg Robinson, Christian Westerman, and JUCO commit Will Latu can successfully integrate into the line, this team has a potential to be very good next season.
SEC
  • Vanderbilt will be a team to be reckoned with as long as James Franklin is the coach. For the 2nd week in a row, the Dores took a Top 25 SEC team to the wire. If not for a red zone fumble that was returned for a touchdown or a missed field goal at the end of regulation, the Dores would have knocked off Arkansas. This team doesn't have the talent level of many other SEC teams, but Franklin has inspired a confidence and grit that will keep Vandy from being the SEC dore mat (you see what I did there? huh?).
  • Mark Richt has saved his job. After Georgia's victory in the Grande Sized Drinking Festival in Jacksonville, the Dogs are in position to make an appearance in Atlanta. Granted, they will get destroyed by either Alabama or LSU, but it is definite progress for a Georgia team that had seemed to be trending downward for several years. 
  • Georgia doesn't control their own destiny, but with South Carolina playing without Marcus Lattimore for the rest of the season, they might as well. The Cocks barely beat a bad Tennessee team, and Alshon Jeffery only touched the ball only three times. That is not a recipe for success, and I don't expect South Carolina to be able to beat both Arkansas and Florida. 
  • Mississippi State beat Kentucky for their first SEC victory of the season. I doubt anyone cares other than Dan Mullen.
  • In case you have missed the entire season, Alabama and LSU play next week in a game that has the potential to be one of the most epic in recent college football history. 
Nation
  • We knew it was only a matter of time before Clemson blew it. It should come to no one's surprise that Georgia Tech was the team to wreck the dream. Tech runs an offense that you won't see anywhere outside of Navy, and is unpredictable week to week. Add in a Tajh Boyd off week, and you have a recipe for disaster. The Tigers should still be able to get to the ACC Championship and thus a BCS bowl, but this is a huge disappointment for Dabo Swinney's team and the ACC as a whole.
  • Stanford almost joined the Tigers in Upsetville, needing a triple overtime touchdown to down USC. As you may recall, I have been a bit skeptical of this Cardinal team all season, and this shows why. The Cardinal don't face a very tough schedule, but a matchup with Oregon in a couple weeks looks like trouble to me.
  • Goodbye Wisconsin, thank you for playing.
  • Big East football makes me puke in my mouth a little.
  • Want to know why Houston is undefeated and still only ranked #14? Because they play in a conference where you can put up 73 points on a conference opponent, have a quarterback throw for 9 touchdowns in a game, and have a receiver gain over 300 yards in a game. Add in non-conference games against UCLA, North Texas, Georgia State, and Louisiana Tech, and you see why folks are unimpressed with Case Keenum and the Cougars.
  • Nebraska is quietly playing some pretty nice football. The Huskers knocked off Michigan State, and out-defensed the country's 7th best D. Penn State and Michigan still loom, but Nebraska looks to be in pretty good shape in their first year in the Big Ten.
  • Kansas State, welcome to big-time football. The next month will be rough for the Wildcats. Oklahoma started what could be 4 straight losses as the Cats actually play competitive teams. Oklahoma State looms next week, and the Cowboys don't look ready to back down any time soon. 
That's all for this week. Try to stay on task this week as visions of Purple and Crimson sugar plums dance in your head. 
 

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Week 8- Ouch

Auburn
  • To say the game was ugly would be an colossal understatement. The Bayou version of the Tiger was so superior that Auburn looked like a MAC team. Honestly, we should have expected this. Fortunately for Auburn and unfortunately for our sanity, Auburn managed to win 2 games against teams who weren't as good as we thought they were, to give us the illusion that this team might be competitive. If we had our wits about us, however, we would have remembered that this team lost over 30 players from last year's team, is playing about 75% freshman and sophomores, has only 5 healthy senior contributors, has had terrible injury luck, and is about 10 players short of the roster limit. Let's be honest- with everything that LSU has going for them right now and everything Auburn doesn't, this game looked about as it should have. 
  • The offensive line was terrible. Gene Chizik can attempt to deflect blame away from them or call it a team breakdown, but there's no denying it. Clint Moseley rarely had time to get throws away, and the run game was almost non-existent outside of a few McCalebb sweeps. 
  • Considering the circumstances, Moseley actually performed quite well. He was under duress all game and still came away with some nice throws and decent composure, though there were still times when he held the ball too long. That blame doesn't lie completely on him, however, as the receivers weren't doing a sterling job of getting open. Being without Emory Blake certainly did not help.
  • The special teams finally let Auburn down. Stephen Clark came back to earth in a big way, shanking a couple punts and failing to help Auburn win the field position battle. In the return game, Auburn lost its first fumble of the year (last team in the NCAA to do so) as Tre Mason got lambasted by Jarvis Landry. LSU's coverage units were flying down the field and laying the smack down. 
  • The defense wasn't terrible. Looking at the score, you probably wouldn't believe this, but they were put in tough positions all game. Robensen Therezie and Chris Davis both got burned by Reuben Randle, and Auburn struggled to get stops late in the game, but it was still an improvement over the efforts during the beginning of the season. However,....
  • Gus Malzahn is definitely making adjustments to help the defense, and the offense is suffering because of it. Auburn is working to milk the clock during the entire game, which simply isn't Malzahn's style. You'll recall the last couple of years that Auburn frequently scored on drives lasting less than 2 minutes and were prone to take a shot deep or run multiple trick plays on one drive. To put it plainly, Malzahn can't do what he wants because if he does the defense is on the field more and then unable to stop opponents. Chizik denied this during press conferences each of the last two weeks, but if you have watched the games, you know he is blowing smoke.
  • There's always next week. Fortunately for Auburn, that means Ole Miss and a solid chance for a rebound and bowl eligibility.
SEC
  • This video is crunk, but even it doesn't do justice to just how amazing November 7th's Alabama-LSU matchup should be. This is a matchup of undoubtedly the top 2 teams in college football, 2 phenomenal defenses, and two uber-passionate fan bases. I'm have no loyalties either way, and I'm still a bit giddy in anticipation. Bama's victory over Tennessee on Saturday was a slow start, but that is part of the allure of both teams. They are big, strong, and deep enough to wear down the opponents and then smash them into oblivion.
  • Vanderbilt may have found a little offense in the form of Jordan Rodgers. The passing performance wasn't impressive by any means, but his arm strength and running ability open up the field for Zach Stacy to do his thing, which is what the 'Dores need in order to be successful. 
  • Arkansas struggled out of the gates against Ole Miss, but you just knew that the Hogs weren't going to go away and that Ole Miss would blow it. That is exactly what happened, and the Razorbacks continue to roll. 
Nation
  • Remember when I told you several weeks ago that I never believe in the legitimacy of Wisconsin? Saturday night is yet another in a long string of disappointing Wisconsin meltdowns under pressure. I still think this is the best Wisconsin team in recent memory, but this club has developed a pension for the letdown. That said, let's take nothing away from the great Hail Mary that won Sparty the game. Great ending.
  • Should we have seen an Oklahoma loss coming? Probably. Did I? Not this week. You get the feeling that the Sooners may have gotten caught looking ahead to games against Kansas State and Texas A&M in the coming weeks. As the season has gone on, wins against Texas, Florida State, and Missouri have looked less impressive, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sooners take at least one more under the chin before the season is over, especially with as well as Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and A&M are playing.
  • The Big East, whoof. Syracuse took down West Virginia, Louisville took down Rutgers, and I continue to wonder why the Big East has a BCS bid and why these other conferences are so eager to merge with their mediocrity.
  • Stanford, Clemson, and Boise continued to roll, as they should have. The Cardinal gets a bit of a challenge with USC next week, but Oregon is probably their best bet to fall. Speaking of the Ducks..
  • Watch out for Oregon as a sleeper to return to the National Championship game. Chip Kelly's squad currently ranks 7th in the BCS, so they would need some help, but its not unfathomable. Boise State will get jumped by any teams playing legitimate competition, and Oklahoma State and Clemson still have work to do. Beat Stanford, and the road to New Orleans for the Ducks doesn't look so tough. LSU-Oregon rematch? Bama-LSU rematch? The BCS may have a different type of controversy on its hand this season.
That's all folks. This week's schedule brings us Florida-Georgia, Nebraska-Michigan State, Oklahoma-KState, and Baylor-Oklahoma State (upset alert? Old allegiances die hard). Should be a pretty good week of games, with marquee games spread out throughout the day. Enjoy!